An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.

BACKGROUND: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management METHODS: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of six hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpo...

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Autori principali: Nguyen, MT, Simmons, Cameron, Ho, TN, Nguyen, VVC, Nguyen, TH, Ha, MT, Ta, VT, Nguyen, LDH, Phan, L, Han, KQ, Duong, THK, Tran, NBC, Bridget, W, Wolbers, M, Simmons, CP
Natura: Journal Article
Lingua:inglese
Pubblicazione: 2018
Accesso online:https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/233
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author Nguyen, MT
Simmons, Cameron
Ho, TN
Nguyen, VVC
Nguyen, TH
Ha, MT
Ta, VT
Nguyen, LDH
Phan, L
Han, KQ
Duong, THK
Tran, NBC
Bridget, W
Wolbers, M
Simmons, CP
author_browse Bridget, W
Duong, THK
Ha, MT
Han, KQ
Ho, TN
Nguyen, LDH
Nguyen, MT
Nguyen, TH
Nguyen, VVC
Phan, L
Simmons, CP
Simmons, Cameron
Ta, VT
Tran, NBC
Wolbers, M
author_facet Nguyen, MT
Simmons, Cameron
Ho, TN
Nguyen, VVC
Nguyen, TH
Ha, MT
Ta, VT
Nguyen, LDH
Phan, L
Han, KQ
Duong, THK
Tran, NBC
Bridget, W
Wolbers, M
Simmons, CP
author_sort Nguyen, MT
collection DSpace
description BACKGROUND: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management METHODS: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of six hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpoint of interest was severe dengue (2009 WHO Guidelines) and pre-defined risk variables were collected at the time of enrolment to enable prognostic model development. RESULTS: The analysis population comprised 7544 patients, of whom 2060 (27.3%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue and nested amongst these were 117 (1.5%) severe cases. In the multivariate logistic model a history of vomiting, lower platelet count, elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST), positivity in the NS1 rapid test and viremia magnitude were all independently associated with severe dengue. The final prognostic model (Early Severe Dengue identifier- ESDI) included history of vomiting, platelet count, AST level and NS1 rapid test status. CONCLUSIONS: The ESDI had acceptable performance features (AUC=ΓÇë0.95, sensitivity 87% (95%CI: 80-92%), specificity 88% (95%CI: 87-89%), positive predictive value 10% (95%CI: 9-12%), negative predictive value of 99.8% (95%CI: 99.6-99.9%)) in the population of all 7563 enrolled children. A score-chart, for routine clinical use, was derived from the prognostic model and could improve triage and management of children presenting with fever in dengue endemic areas.
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spelling oai:localhost:123456789-2332021-04-07T16:30:09Z An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting. Nguyen, MT Simmons, Cameron Ho, TN Nguyen, VVC Nguyen, TH Ha, MT Ta, VT Nguyen, LDH Phan, L Han, KQ Duong, THK Tran, NBC Bridget, W Wolbers, M Simmons, CP BACKGROUND: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management METHODS: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of six hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpoint of interest was severe dengue (2009 WHO Guidelines) and pre-defined risk variables were collected at the time of enrolment to enable prognostic model development. RESULTS: The analysis population comprised 7544 patients, of whom 2060 (27.3%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue and nested amongst these were 117 (1.5%) severe cases. In the multivariate logistic model a history of vomiting, lower platelet count, elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST), positivity in the NS1 rapid test and viremia magnitude were all independently associated with severe dengue. The final prognostic model (Early Severe Dengue identifier- ESDI) included history of vomiting, platelet count, AST level and NS1 rapid test status. CONCLUSIONS: The ESDI had acceptable performance features (AUC=ΓÇë0.95, sensitivity 87% (95%CI: 80-92%), specificity 88% (95%CI: 87-89%), positive predictive value 10% (95%CI: 9-12%), negative predictive value of 99.8% (95%CI: 99.6-99.9%)) in the population of all 7563 enrolled children. A score-chart, for routine clinical use, was derived from the prognostic model and could improve triage and management of children presenting with fever in dengue endemic areas. 2018-09-14T11:15:12Z 2017-02-28T23:11:13Z 2018-09-14T11:15:12Z 2016-12-28 Journal Article https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/233 eng
spellingShingle Nguyen, MT
Simmons, Cameron
Ho, TN
Nguyen, VVC
Nguyen, TH
Ha, MT
Ta, VT
Nguyen, LDH
Phan, L
Han, KQ
Duong, THK
Tran, NBC
Bridget, W
Wolbers, M
Simmons, CP
An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title_full An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title_fullStr An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title_full_unstemmed An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title_short An evidence-based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting.
title_sort evidence based algorithm for early prognosis of severe dengue in the outpatient setting
url https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/233
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