The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series

This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross-quantilogram and the correspo...

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Hauptverfasser: Han, Heejoon, Linton, Oliver, Oka, Tatsushi, Whang, Yoon-Jae
Weitere Verfasser: Systemic Physiological and Ecotoxicological Research (SPHERE)
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Elsevier 2019
Online-Zugang:https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/471
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author Han, Heejoon
Linton, Oliver
Oka, Tatsushi
Whang, Yoon-Jae
author2 Systemic Physiological and Ecotoxicological Research (SPHERE)
author_browse Han, Heejoon
Linton, Oliver
Oka, Tatsushi
Systemic Physiological and Ecotoxicological Research (SPHERE)
Whang, Yoon-Jae
author_facet Systemic Physiological and Ecotoxicological Research (SPHERE)
Han, Heejoon
Linton, Oliver
Oka, Tatsushi
Whang, Yoon-Jae
author_sort Han, Heejoon
collection DSpace
description This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross-quantilogram and the corresponding test statistic. The limiting distributions depend on nuisance parameters. To construct consistent confidence intervals we employ a stationary bootstrap procedure; we establish consistency of this bootstrap. Also, we consider a self-normalized approach, which yields an asymptotically pivotal statistic under the null hypothesis of no predictability. We provide simulation studies and two empirical applications. First, we use the cross-quantilogram to detect predictability from stock variance to excess stock return. Compared to existing tools used in the literature of stock return predictability, our method provides a more complete relationship between a predictor and stock return. Second, we investigate the systemic risk of individual financial institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and AIG.
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publishDate 2019
publishDateRange 2019
publishDateSort 2019
publisher Elsevier
publisherStr Elsevier
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spelling oai:localhost:123456789-4712021-04-07T16:30:12Z The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series Han, Heejoon Linton, Oliver Oka, Tatsushi Whang, Yoon-Jae Systemic Physiological and Ecotoxicological Research (SPHERE) This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross-quantilogram and the corresponding test statistic. The limiting distributions depend on nuisance parameters. To construct consistent confidence intervals we employ a stationary bootstrap procedure; we establish consistency of this bootstrap. Also, we consider a self-normalized approach, which yields an asymptotically pivotal statistic under the null hypothesis of no predictability. We provide simulation studies and two empirical applications. First, we use the cross-quantilogram to detect predictability from stock variance to excess stock return. Compared to existing tools used in the literature of stock return predictability, our method provides a more complete relationship between a predictor and stock return. Second, we investigate the systemic risk of individual financial institutions, such as JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and AIG. 2019-04-26T08:57:25Z 2019-04-26T08:57:25Z 30/03/16 https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/471 en Elsevier
spellingShingle Han, Heejoon
Linton, Oliver
Oka, Tatsushi
Whang, Yoon-Jae
The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title_full The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title_fullStr The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title_full_unstemmed The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title_short The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
title_sort cross quantilogram measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series
url https://demo7.dspace.org/handle/123456789/471
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